Regime-switching models of time series with cubic spline transition function in geodetic application

نویسندگان

  • Tomás Bognár
  • Jozef Komorník
  • Magda Komorníková
چکیده

A new class of Smooth Transition Autoregressive models, based on cubic spline type transition functions, has been introduced and subjected to comparison with models based on the traditional logistic transition functions. A very high degree of similarity between the two model classes has been demonstrated. The new class of models can be slightly preferable because of its more simple formal and geometrical structure that may enable users more convenient manipulation in statistical inference procedures.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Estimating Stock Price in Energy Market Including Oil, Gas, and Coal: The Comparison of Linear and Non-Linear Two-State Markov Regime Switching Models

A common method to study the dynamic behavior of macroeconomic variables is using linear time series models; however, they are unable to explain nonlinear behavior of the series. Given the dependency between stock market and derivatives, the behavior of the underlying asset price can be modeled using Markov switching process properties and the economic regime significance. In this paper, a two-...

متن کامل

The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Transitional Dynamics of Business Cycles in Iran: Markov Switching Model with Time Varying Transition Probabilities (MS-TVTP)

The business cycles are one of the most important economic indicators that they show the changes in economic activities during time. The study of business cycles is important because the understanding fluctuations in GDP and effective factors on these fluctuations help policy makers to plan better and more efficient. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of oil price shoc...

متن کامل

Long-term Iran's inflation analysis using varying coefficient model

Varying coefficient Models are among the most important tools for discovering the dynamic patterns when a fixed pattern does not fit adequately well on the data, due to existing diverse temporal or local patterns. These models are natural extensions of classical parametric models that have achieved great popularity in data analysis with good interpretability.The high flexibility and interpretab...

متن کامل

Monetary Fundamental-Based Exchange Rate Model in Iran: Applying a MS-TVTP Approach

T he main purpose of this article is to analyze exchange rate behavior based on monetary fundamentals in the context of Iranian economy over the period 1990:2 to 2014:3. To do so, two monetary exchange rate models is investigated, the first by regarding interest rate differential as a monetary variable, and the second one regardless of interest rate differential as a monetary variabl...

متن کامل

Forecasting Crude Oil prices Volatility and Value at Risk: Single and Switching Regime GARCH Models

Forecasting crude oil price volatility is an important issues in risk management. The historical course of oil price volatility indicates the existence of a cluster pattern. Therefore, GARCH models are used to model and more accurately predict oil price fluctuations. The purpose of this study is to identify the best GARCH model with the best performance in different time horizons. To achieve th...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Kybernetika

دوره 40  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2004